Monday, May 25, 2009

Best Way to Consolidate All of Your Debt



Debt Consolidation loans are various sorts of credit types that you are able to use in order to consolidate your debt. There are several different types of loans out there that will allow you to consolidate your debt in different sorts of ways. These ways include second mortgage debt consolidation loans, such as a home equity line of credit home loan, or cash out refinance debt consolidation loan, or even a credit card balance transfer is available to help consolidate debt that you have built up over a period of time.

There are common mistakes that you can try and avoid when you are trying to consolidate your debts. Firstly of you should always shop for a particular lender and not for a certain type of loan. The quality of the loan that you end up with depends squarely upon how trust worthy the company you choose is. You should always look at their history up front in order to make certain that they have quite a few happy customers that go back several years. This enables you to be certain that the company you go with has a long history of helping individuals that are in the same situation as yourself.

You should try and avoid the unknown debt consolidation companies and try to stick with companies that are fairly large and reputable in nature. While this could go against your instinct to hunt for the best particular deal, this is done in order to be sure that you do not become just another statistic. Lots of people that have problems with their debt and need help consolidating are usually seen as the most vulnerable towards people that are looking to take advantage of their respective situations. A larger and more known company usually has a fairly comprehensive financial regulation behind it. They are unable to take the risk of ripping people off without damaging their reputations as a result. It is bad business for them in the short run and even the long run. They are likely to have a lot of ways to make sure that it is a safe thing for you and that you will also be treated fairly.

While debt consolidation is an excellent way to reduce the amount of outstanding bills that you needed to pay or even lower the interest rates of your current bills or perhaps even to get some tax relief from it. Just like anything else in life though, you should be careful not to over do it though. You should not at all use debt consolidation to get yourself out of debt because you have over spent and then continue to over spend. This will not help you at all in the long run or the short run. Additionally, you should not pay off the debt that has you paying off the debt that has lower interest than the loan consolidation is even worth to you. It is also important not to deplete your home equity continually so that you do not leave yourself with assets available in the case of an emergency as it will lower your standard of living years down the line when you will eventually need it.

By utilizing debt consolidation you are capable of relief from your current budget. It will allow you to bring down your current monthly payments on your debt and to as a result have more cash available in order to spend on other things that you may need. Not only this, but some of the options available to you will also allow you to get some tax benefits in the process.

Just like most things however, there are some drawbacks to debt consolidation that you should be aware of before going about it. These loans tend to carry some risks and you need to be completely honest with yourself in order to avoid getting trapped in by it. If you end up taking out another loan you need to make sure that you stick with it, or else you could very well end up going even further into debt and hurting yourself. To succeed you need to make certain that you change the spending habits and budgeting that got you into the situation you are in to begin with. A lot of these types of debt consolidation loans will make it so that you will be paying off the loan for a longer period of time so even with the benefits of it and how it can help you out, over a period of time your cost of the loan may exceed what your current debt is as a result of it. You also need to be careful not to empty out the assets of your home equity as you may need that cash in a pinch one day.

Following these simple steps can allow you to take advantage of debt consolidation and to be a step ahead of the game so to speak. Take a close look at your options for you are the consumer, it is always best to shop around for the best deal and to weigh your options carefully. Debt consolidation is designed to help those individuals that have piled on a fair bit of debt to relieve the burden of multiple bills and to allow them to focus on budgeting and managing their lives. Debt consolidation can help anyone that is looking to get back on the path of financial freedom if they are able to have the wisdom to stick to it.

ezConsolidation.com is an online debt consolidation service provider that helps you save money by reducing your interest rates, lowering your monthly payments, avoiding bankruptcy and having only one payment per month. Depending on your total debt amount, ezConsolidation can save $300.00 or more per month.

Why "Follow-Through" Is Imperative For Your Market Position



Endurance is counted as a high merit in great accomplishments, especially in forex market. Great men frequently advise to be consistent in big changes of market tendencies and "Follow Through" in breakthroughs.

If you have made a price change one day and you get success out of it then you should continue your endeavors in the same route in coming days and this trading movement is called the "Follow Through".

But this kind of breakthrough is not that much simple. Market does not accept big changes frequently. It goes back over those trends present previously in the trade and at the end of the day when all is going to end, forex prices repeat the same trend seen some days before.

Nobody is a faultless and ideal merchant. All the brokers and traders constantly discover a lot about the trading and aim not to repeat their past mistakes and blunders. I can give you many instances about my learning and it all happens when you don't show patience and consistency. When you don't wait and take a great step thinking it would be a huge success, but it is not all what we think.

I was planning about the corn market and had a keen eye on it for a long time. I was waiting and hanging around for the market to show a big change in a persistent downside trend of the prices and counteract it. One day there appeared a little upside move in the corn price but was not near to counteract it. I was out of my workplace for coming days and was unable to meet my broker or the info about the rates. I made a call to my dealer and ordered corn for a buy-stop at a price which was much higher than the downside trend. It did so because I thought if it worked, it would be a very tough change in the price to counteract the constant downside trend and it will indicate an uphill breakthrough in the every day price bar map. That day I had some jinx and blip in my mind which was disapproving my decision and asking me to take time and "follow through" the price tendency to make the price break sure. Next morning the corn's price inclination was high enough to strike my end and made me "in" the market. But it was not for a long time. Corn rates again overturned and threw my corn prices out soon.

The perception after observation is always true. But this mistake taught me the significance of patience and consistency to give the market enough time to indicate follow through movement to make a prospective trading arrangement sure. But a dealer also has some risk of absence and getting advantage of a big price change if he keeps on waiting. But it is more sensible to be cautious and wait for the market to verify the follow through movements in the coming days.

Sometimes market shows a relaxing session in the price movement and then verifies the great changes in the coming days. But mostly the follow through movement is going to come in the next session if expected

Stock Market Trading - Winning Trading Plan



Successful stock market trading begins with a winning trading plan. It's as simple as that. If you develop a well-conceived trading plan to guide your actions in the stock market you will already have the advantage over most of your market competition. Put simply, it gives you the edge you need to win over the long haul when trading the stock market or forex market.

A stock market trading plan will not guarantee your success in the markets, but a good plan will enable you to work methodically toward your stock market trading goals while reviewing on a regular basis what is working and what is not. It will act as a roadmap for your trading journey. It will enable you to respond positively and constructively no matter what happens with your individual trades. And, most importantly, it will help you control the only thing a trader can control: his or her own actions.

Finally, stock market trading is a business. It can be a fascinating and sometimes thrilling business, but in the end it is a business. A trading plan helps you treat it as a business.

Here are some important elements of a trading plan.

1. Why am I trading? What are my goals?

The answers to these questions might seem obvious, but they usually are not. Take some time to ask them of yourself, and seriously consider the answers. You may be surprised by what you learn. And whatever the answers, you will have a clearer picture going forward of what this enterprise means to you, and that will help you survive any rough patches.

2. What markets am I going to trade and why?

It is often best to specialize, especially for beginning stock market traders. Many pros make a great living trading the same stock day every single day for years. Choose a market that is appropriate for your experience level and trading style. Consider other factors such as available margin, volatility and liquidity.

3. What is the concept or philosophy behind your trading methodology?

Your trading system must have a concept behind it. Whether you are a value investor like Warren Buffet or a trend trader like George Soros, you should understand why you are doing what you are doing, how your beliefs about the markets define what you will do as a trader.

4. What will be your specific method?

In other words, specifically how will you execute your trading ideas? Will you buy breakouts or pullbacks? Buy oversold or sell overbought? Or will you use specific technical setups such as moving-average crossovers or another indicator-based strategy? Under exactly what conditions will you enter? When will you know to exit?

5. How much money will you risk on any single trade? On trading in general?

This is critical. Of course, start small. But just as importantly, have a plan in place for how much you will risk, emotions don't cloud your judgment when the time comes. The key is to find an allocation that doesn't cause any stress but still makes the trade worthwhile financially. One of the biggest problems with newer traders is that they are trading way too big in relation to their account size. Like when you are forex trading. Trading forex at 100-1 leverage is like introducing your mistress to your wife. Yes, you can do it, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Normally they don't get along too well.

6. What will my trading rules be?

This is also critical. Your trading rules include entry and exit rules, rules governing maximum daily, weekly or monthly losses, maximum risk on any given trade, the maximum number of trades per week, etc., etc. These rules enforce discipline and keep you out of trouble. What stock price will enter at, what stock price will I will exit. Be discplined.

7. How will I record and evaluate my trading performance?

Allow me to repeat myself: This is critical. In fact, this might be the most important element of trading for new traders in the stock market. A new stock market trader who evaluates his trades, winners and losers, in an effort to learn what works and what does not, will make quantum leaps forward in terms of ability and profitability. If you have a working trading plan and evaluate every single one of your trades after you have closed it you have already beaten 95% of the competition.

8. What are my rules for managing profits?

What's the problem with profits? Well, believe it or not there is one, and it's a serious one. It's called euphoria, and it clouds the judgment perhaps more than any other emotion related to trading. Start piling up the profits for the first time and it won't be long before you are convinced you are king of the world. About 30 seconds later you'll be broke, following a series of unwise and exceedingly risky trades. So have a plan for protecting closed profits when you have reached your goals for the week or the month. Don't give them all back.

9. How will I reward myself for following my trading plan?

Don't leave this out. Following your trading plan will bring rewards in the form of profits, but you should also consciously reward yourself for doing so because it is such an important part of successful trading. So if you finish the week or the month (or even the day) without having broken any of your trading rules, find a way to reward yourself. You deserve it. You are in rare company.

If you follow your plan you are improving your chances of becoming successful stock market or forex trader.

Happy Trading

Last Bank Standing - The Wall Street Mega-Crash

Dateline Washington, October 19th (get it?) 2010: the Peoples Bank & Trust of America has now established itself as the only bank of any kind in the USA, totally owned and managed by the US House of Representatives. A 2/3 majority must now approve all investment banking transactions; your district representative's staff reviews individual mortgage applications; and all 401(k), IRA, and remaining employer pension assets have been rolled into the Social Security Slush Fund.

Only federal and state elected officials are exempt from the 45% all purpose Income Tax. The estimated time to bring new companies public is 4.5 years; all individual account dividends and interest are paid directly into your IRS "grabber" account; CEO's salaries are limited to 50% of the amount paid to a first year congressman, and any government budget shortfalls are withdrawn from corporate earnings before any corporate obligations can be dealt with.

All employees receive the federal mandated minimum wage, except senior executives who are limited as mentioned above. Scary? This is a scenario that could play out if Congress (or the SEC) does not come to the rescue of the credit markets. You missed your opportunity to help stop it, but chances are a fix is on its way.

How many more businesses, jobs, and hopes will be killed by this irresponsible Congress? When will the average blogger realize that when a corporation fails, we all suffer? One would think that the informed and enlightened could take time out from their texting for a little research and education. Instead, they show their power by influencing public opinion numbers and the marshmallow politicians who worship them. As economist Irwin Kellner and I have pointed out, this is no bailout and we are not nearly approaching a recession.

Kellner's September 28th Market Watch article points out ten major differences between now and then: (1) In 1929, the DJIA plunged 40% in two months vs. around 30% in about a year. (2) In 1933, the jobless rate was 33% vs. 6% today. (3) The GDP shrank 25% then, but has increased 6% now. (4) Consumer prices actually fell 30% then but haven't ever since.

(5) Home prices dropped 30% then, but only 16% from the recent bubbly highs. (6) 40% of all mortgages were in default then vs. only 4% now. (7) 9,000 banks failed in the 1930s compared with just 25 or so (bigger and broader based ones) recently. (8) The Federal Reserve reduced the money supply, (9) raised interest rates, and (10) raised taxes on foreign imports.

Further, Kellner points out, we now have automatic stabilizers, deposit insurances, and market trading restrictions as protective elements. Today's Congress however, has never been good at connecting dots, has accomplished nothing under an unpopular president, and is ignoring its role as the primary creative force in today's problems. This transfusion is needed because: bad laws have obscured the values on financial institution balance sheets, and have created a clot in the credit arteries that keep the economy alive.

Educate yourselves on the Accounting Rule's that require institutions to book paying assets at pennies on the dollar. Find out why institutions are afraid to loan money to one another--- over night, at any rate of interest--- strangling the credit markets.

Doing nothing is killing jobs, killing companies, and deferring retirements for those who were counting on 401(k) and IRA dollars to provide them with income. Congress, of course has an old-fashioned pension plan, so it is unaffected by such financial realities.

Investigate the relaxation of lending standards that Congress orchestrated over the past few administrations, before blaming the companies that then extended credit to many speculators and other buyers who falsified application papers. Learn how the SEC was prohibited from regulating the CDOs and other multiple-leveraged credit market speculations. There are as many culprits outside the corporate executive suite as in it.

Congress is bursting with pride over bringing some of the Rich and Famous to their knees, and capping some of their obscene compensation arrangements at still shareholder pillaging levels. I've spoken often about how these salaries need to be controlled. But the multi-level-mortgage-marketing schemes that Congress encouraged must be unbundled somehow, and a buy out is the proper vehicle.

Congress has punished the entire world with its attack on Wall Street, and both parties are to blame. Representatives of the states listed below voted "no" to the credit transfusion, causing death and destruction that, in many instances, cannot be recouped. We have to replace them with better decision makers, representatives who can think in economic terms when they have to.

The number and letter code after the state designation indicates the number of representatives and their party: AL-1R, AK-1R, AZ-4D4R, CA-15D9R, CO-2D2R, CT-1D, FL-1D13R, GA-4D7R, HI-2D, ID-1R, IL-4D5R, IN-3D3R, IA-1D2R, KS-1D2R, KY-2D2R, LA-2D3R, ME-1D, MD-2D1R, MA-3D, MI-3D6R, MN-2D2R, MS-3D, MO-2D3R, MT-1R, NE-3R, NV-1D1R, NH-2D, NJ-3D4R, NM-1D1R, NY-3D1R, NC-3D5R, OH-3D7R, OK-3R, OR-3D, PA-3D7R, SC-1R, SD-1D, TN-1D4R, TX-8D14R, UT-1D1R, VT-1D, VA-1D5R, WA-1D3R, WV-1R, WI-1D2R (Names withheld, but available from the author.)

On Friday evening, candidates Obama and McCain gave their support to the Capital infusion, but neither bothered to explain why--- a huge audience was ready to soak up the information. Over the weekend, both attended meetings to support the plan and to generate support from their respective parties.

Is there enough time left to find a hero?

Stock Market Trading - Winning Trading Plan


Successful stock market trading begins with a winning trading plan. It's as simple as that. If you develop a well-conceived trading plan to guide your actions in the stock market you will already have the advantage over most of your market competition. Put simply, it gives you the edge you need to win over the long haul when trading the stock market or forex market.

A stock market trading plan will not guarantee your success in the markets, but a good plan will enable you to work methodically toward your stock market trading goals while reviewing on a regular basis what is working and what is not. It will act as a roadmap for your trading journey. It will enable you to respond positively and constructively no matter what happens with your individual trades. And, most importantly, it will help you control the only thing a trader can control: his or her own actions.

Finally, stock market trading is a business. It can be a fascinating and sometimes thrilling business, but in the end it is a business. A trading plan helps you treat it as a business.

Here are some important elements of a trading plan.

1. Why am I trading? What are my goals?

The answers to these questions might seem obvious, but they usually are not. Take some time to ask them of yourself, and seriously consider the answers. You may be surprised by what you learn. And whatever the answers, you will have a clearer picture going forward of what this enterprise means to you, and that will help you survive any rough patches.

2. What markets am I going to trade and why?

It is often best to specialize, especially for beginning stock market traders. Many pros make a great living trading the same stock day every single day for years. Choose a market that is appropriate for your experience level and trading style. Consider other factors such as available margin, volatility and liquidity.

3. What is the concept or philosophy behind your trading methodology?

Your trading system must have a concept behind it. Whether you are a value investor like Warren Buffet or a trend trader like George Soros, you should understand why you are doing what you are doing, how your beliefs about the markets define what you will do as a trader.

4. What will be your specific method?

In other words, specifically how will you execute your trading ideas? Will you buy breakouts or pullbacks? Buy oversold or sell overbought? Or will you use specific technical setups such as moving-average crossovers or another indicator-based strategy? Under exactly what conditions will you enter? When will you know to exit?

5. How much money will you risk on any single trade? On trading in general?

This is critical. Of course, start small. But just as importantly, have a plan in place for how much you will risk, emotions don't cloud your judgment when the time comes. The key is to find an allocation that doesn't cause any stress but still makes the trade worthwhile financially. One of the biggest problems with newer traders is that they are trading way too big in relation to their account size. Like when you are forex trading. Trading forex at 100-1 leverage is like introducing your mistress to your wife. Yes, you can do it, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Normally they don't get along too well.

6. What will my trading rules be?

This is also critical. Your trading rules include entry and exit rules, rules governing maximum daily, weekly or monthly losses, maximum risk on any given trade, the maximum number of trades per week, etc., etc. These rules enforce discipline and keep you out of trouble. What stock price will enter at, what stock price will I will exit. Be discplined.

7. How will I record and evaluate my trading performance?

Allow me to repeat myself: This is critical. In fact, this might be the most important element of trading for new traders in the stock market. A new stock market trader who evaluates his trades, winners and losers, in an effort to learn what works and what does not, will make quantum leaps forward in terms of ability and profitability. If you have a working trading plan and evaluate every single one of your trades after you have closed it you have already beaten 95% of the competition.

8. What are my rules for managing profits?

What's the problem with profits? Well, believe it or not there is one, and it's a serious one. It's called euphoria, and it clouds the judgment perhaps more than any other emotion related to trading. Start piling up the profits for the first time and it won't be long before you are convinced you are king of the world. About 30 seconds later you'll be broke, following a series of unwise and exceedingly risky trades. So have a plan for protecting closed profits when you have reached your goals for the week or the month. Don't give them all back.

9. How will I reward myself for following my trading plan?

Don't leave this out. Following your trading plan will bring rewards in the form of profits, but you should also consciously reward yourself for doing so because it is such an important part of successful trading. So if you finish the week or the month (or even the day) without having broken any of your trading rules, find a way to reward yourself. You deserve it. You are in rare company.

If you follow your plan you are improving your chances of becoming successful stock market or forex trader.

Happy Trading

Online Trading, an Option for World Trade

International deal is substitute of capital, commodities, and services across world frames or soils. In the most of nations, it being a remarkable percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). While world deal has been represented throughout lots of story (see Silk Road, Amber Road) the economic, social, and political importance has been connected the raise in new centuries. Industrialization, manufacturers, advanced transportation system, globalisation, transnational corporations, and outsourcing are all having a major impact on the transnational trade system.

Trading globally opens consumers and nations the opportunity to be exposed to commodities and services that are not available in their individual nations. Almost each variety of product can be checked on the global market: food, clothes, spare parts, oil, jewelry, wine, stocks, currencies and water. Services are as well traded: tourism, banking, consulting and transportation. A product that is dealt to the worldwide market is an export, and a product that is bought from the worldwide market is an import. Imports and exports are described for in a country's ongoing account in the balance of payments.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, strong companies reach up about 4 % of U.S. Exports which signifies that 96% of exporters are smaller companies. Why is world trade so strategic to begin smaller businesses? In numerous examples, the products or services you may care to market are not available or made in your domicile nation. For illustration, consider about trading cashmere sweaters. You may want to become an importer in order to compete with established products dealt by your competitors.

Online business can oftentimes start trading internationally with very little effort. The cyberspace has metamorphosed things. Your web site can be your store window in some number of nations. You don't need a physical front in every territory to deal there.

A Paper by Georgios Papastamkos, MEP on Transnational Trade on the cyberspace emphasised that the online circumstances for smaller and medium-size enterprises are especially great since they receive more chances to get across conventional commercial systems instead than they had even a last decade. Enterprises are effective to set up their cyberspace sale targets easy, speedily and at little cost, thereby achieving a higher level of fight.

If your business is operating in a niche, with a relatively smaller domestic market, looking to another nations can help you expand your audience with surprisingly little effort. And if your commodities or services attract to a bigger audience, moving into international marketplaces makes you the probability to touch a wide number of potency recent customers. It could really boost your receipts and earnings.

However, in a larger market there will be more competition from local companies. It can be heavy to match up on cost or fulfilment when shipping internationally, so you might let to modify your proposition to have an impact.

It's not only for manufacturer but for consumers are also receiving benefits by online trading,. Since they enjoy a very bigger choice between commodities and services, competitive pricing, lower living costs and a better excellent of life, they as well don't demand to go out to browse all products and services even from wholesale providers. They are today better able to compare productions and services since they take access more selective information on online trading.

Using Weekly And Monthly Charts To Invest In The Stock Market



A mistake many investors make is that the longest time frame they will look at when it comes to technical analysis is the daily chart. However this chart doesn't always tell the whole story and in a lot of cases it's a lot more profitable to invest in shares based on what the weekly or monthly charts are saying. One of the best set of indicators you can use are the exponential moving averages. I personally like to plot the 5, 20, 50 and 200 period EMAs on my charts because they are extremely useful indicators. They work well on the daily charts but they are even more dependable on the weekly or monthly charts. The key is to look for important EMA crossovers for a change in trend. After you get one of these crossovers you will often see the price continue to move in this direction for several weeks or months before it reverses and crosses in the opposite direction. In the meantime you can bank some significant profits. You can use the EMA (20) crossing the EMA (50) as a good signal but I personally prefer using the EMA (5) crossing the EMA (20) as my preferred signal. As I say this works well on the daily chart alone but when you increase the time frame, you get far bigger price moves. In fact sometimes you can catch a trend that lasts several years and creates substantial profits. You can also use the downwards crossover as either a sell signal or as an opportunity to go short of a stock. For instance if you look at the monthly chart of any of the banks, let's take Royal Bank of Scotland as an example, you will see that the EMA (5) crossed downwards through the EMA (20) in July 2007 and still hasn't crossed back upwards. In this time the share price has fallen from around 600p to just 20p. So obviously a very profitable long-term short position and it's the same with many other companies, not just the banks. If you look at the daily charts, however, you will see that there are a lot more crossovers using the same period EMAs so you don't always capture these big gains using this time frame. If the weekly or monthly chart is too long a time frame to use, then you should use them to identify the longer term trend if nothing else. For instance if the weekly or monthly chart is trending upwards, then you should look for buying opportunities on the daily chart. The point is that you should always have a look at the weekly and monthly charts because they can provide you with some invaluable information (and trading opportunities). The trends on these longer term time frames can last for months, and even years in some cases.

Are Traditional Banks Better Than Internet Banking?



With the ubiquitous internet as it is today, you have the convenience of doing a variety of banking transactions online from the comfort of your home, in your office or while traveling. This extraordinary technological creation has so made life easier for a lot of people including professionals, the business community, housewives and scholars even for banking purposes. Notwithstanding, this new communication phenomenon people have not stopped patronizing the usual off line banks . The orthodox banks will always be there for those people who still choose to interact in an real bank in where they see staff and call them by name.

The banks that have gone online and their offline counterpart have their advantages and disadvantages. It's up to you to consider and decide whether to transact your financial affairs with either an online bank or an off line one . What really count s is that you should know your financial demands so as to be able to actually be on the look out for the latest tendency in the banking industry and understudy them to see how it favors you. Even if you are loyal to your usual offline bank, you may also have the need to sometimes use the online banking service for an urgent transaction or when you are where the bank is not near by.

Accomplished banks continue to use pen and paper for organizing financial transactions off line while in their online virtual offices computer and internet and keyboard are the instruments for banking transactions . The fact is that a lot of people are now online with financial products that are internet-only services meant to compete with the normal off line banks . Though these conservative banks cater mainly to their old customers, people who should know are advising them to also open online offices to serve the internet-savvy young people and by so doing attract more customers

Security and person to person interactions are the main reasons people maintain the use of traditional banks. A lot of people feel that human contact is a necessity in any bank transaction; they want to hand their hard earned cash over to real teller.

Banking online is quite the same as when you do the same thing in an offline bank. The significant dissimilarity is that your computer replaces paper or phone for accessing your account information for payments and statements reconciliations . You don't really have to worry about going to your local bank branch when you can do all the things necessary to effect a bank transaction in the comfort of your home with a desktop computer or laptop and internet connection.

A principal advantage that internet banking offers people who go for online banking is cost effectiveness. Certain banks are known to charge their customers lower fees if the bank online banking services.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Stock Market Trends for April 2009- The Bear Market Rally



Analyzing monthly stock market trends uses the S&P 500 charts to indicate important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 trend line chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing.

The analysis of the S&P 500 trend line starts with the 20-year monthly view of the S&P 500 chart. Next, we examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 trends to get a shorter-term view. Finally, we analyze the one-year daily chart of the S&P 500 trends to get an even shorter-term view. On each version of the charts of the S&P 500 trend line, the view and the value of the indicators change, as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart.

Starting with the monthly view of the S&P 500 trend chart, the bull market of the last five years turned down, as the index fell below the 24-month exponential moving average. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is below 50, indicating a downtrend is in place. The Moving Average convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero, a sign stock market trend has reversed and we have entered a bear market. Finally, the Slow Stochastic fell through zero, another sign of a bear market.

The analysis of the monthly trends of the S&P 500 chart shows we remain in a bear market with key resistance at the 24-month exponential moving average. In addition, support at the 25 year rising S&P 500 trend line has been tested and held, so far.





The three-year weekly S&P 500 trend line chart shows more closely the transition from a bull to a bear stock market. So far, the descending trend line and the 50-week moving average are the primary resistance levels for this view of the bear market.

As expected, the trend of S&P 500 chart fell through support at the 800 level and fell to the 650 area. The S&P 500 trend then reversed course and is trying to push back through the 800 level, which is acting as resistance. The next important level is the small descending trend line at the 850 area. From the chart, it looks like the S&P 500 trend line will continue to rise through these resistance levels and test the 50-week moving average. It will be a number of weeks before we see a test of the 50-week moving average.

RSI is below 50 indicating a downtrend remains in place. The MACD turned up through the nine-week moving average, a buy sign and it is still trending up, which is a positive sign. Slow Stochastic turned up through 20, a sign the trend on the S&P 500 chart will continue to move up.

Long term, the trend line of the S&P 500 chart is still down. The weekly pattern indicates that we turned up after falling to the 650 level. For now, the chart of the S&P 500 trend line indicates the most likely case is we will see a test of the 50-week moving average.




Introduction to the Insurance Industry


Insurance and risk management make up an immense global industry. According to a survey conducted by a leading global insurance firm, Swiss Re, worldwide insurance premiums totaled $4.061 trillion in 2007 (the latest data available), up about 9.1% from $3.72 trillion in 2006. This was equal to about 7.48% of global GDP. Global life insurance premiums were $2.39 trillion during 2007, while all other types of insurance totaled $1.66 trillion.

In America alone, the insurance business employed about 2.31 million people, and insurance gross premiums totaled $1.1 trillion during 2007, making the U.S. the world's largest insurance market. Life, health and annuity premiums in the United States totaled about $666.6 billion in 2007, up from about $619.7 billion in 2006. Property and casualty premiums totaled about $447.9 billion for 2007, about the same as in 2006. U.S. life insurance firms held about $4.95 trillion in assets in 2007, according to the Federal Reserve Bank, up from about $4.7 trillion the previous year. Approximately 4,500 companies underwrite insurance in America, but the industry is dominated by a handful of major players.

According to Swiss Re, total insurance premium volume for 2007 was $1.68 trillion in Europe, $640.7 billion in Japan and "newly industrialized" Asian economies, $176.6 billion in South and East Asia and $23.1 billion in the Middle East and Central Asia.

In Oceania (which consists mainly of island nations in the Pacific), 2007 premium volume totaled $68.8 billion, Africa totaled $53.2 billion, and Latin America/Caribbean totaled $87.3 billion. Again, these figures are from Swiss Re (www.swissre.com).

Premiums on a per capita basis remain very low in much of the world, pointing to excellent long-term opportunity for expansion of sales of insurance products of all types, including annuities. While it will take many years for underdeveloped nations to begin spending significant amounts on insurance products, much of the world is still clearly a fertile field for expansion of companies that are willing and able to invest time and money in emerging markets.

Massive sources of insurance company earnings come from annuities and other retirement and investment products, along with profits (or losses) that insurance underwriters earn on their own assets and reserves. 2008's stock market meltdown will have a significant effect on profits and assets at life insurance companies in particular, and property & casualty companies to a lesser degree.

In America, insurance is unique in the financial services field because, unlike banking and investments, which are regulated by federal agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, insurance is regulated primarily at the state level. This means that insurance firms must deal with up to 50 different sets of state regulations and 50 different state regulatory agencies. At the same time, they must develop dozens of different premium rate structures that appropriately reflect the costs of meeting local risks and fulfilling state requirements. As a result, few insurance underwriters offer all of their insurance products in all 50 states; many do business only in a limited number of states.

Insurance underwriting does not earn consistent levels of profits. Property and casualty insurance companies sometimes face a year of losses, rather than profits, due to natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods or an overly active fire season. Occasionally, insurance underwriters go broke, and firms that rate the financial stability of insurance underwriters always list more than a few that are not financially sound. For example, Yamato Life Insurance Company, a leading Japanese firm that had been in business for nearly 100 years, took bankruptcy in October 2008.

Major American insurance underwriters found their stocks falling sharply in October 2008 when stock investors realized that many of these companies will need to raise new levels of capital due to losses in the firms' reserves and investment assets. At the same time, markets were reacting to the fact that net profits will fall sharply during tough economic times. Hartford Financial raised $2.5 billion in new capital in October 2008 by selling shares to Allianz, a major German insurance firm. MetLife raised $2 billion in new capital during the same month.

Of course, the biggest news was the U.S. government's need to bail out global insurance giant American International Group (AIG) in the fall of 2008. AIG was considered by most analysts to be a reasonably well-managed insurance company with good long-term potential in the global market. Unfortunately, a relatively small division at AIG had taken immense risks by writing credit default swaps (CDS) totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. This is what broke the company's back. CDS are essentially an unregulated form of insurance, used by investors and financial firms of all types to hedge against potential losses in the value of bonds and debt instruments of all types-such as collateralized debt obligations consisting of pools of mortgages. The American government promised AIG up to $85 billion in loans in exchange for effective control of the firm and a change of top management. That need quickly grew to more than $120 billion when AIG found it difficult to find buyers for assets and operating companies that it intends to sell. Over the mid-term, AIG hopes to refocus primarily as a U.S. property and casualty company, with investments in foreign general insurance and life insurance operations.

During 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the U.S. cost U.S. insurance underwriters vast amounts (damages, both insured and non-insured totaled about $58 billion) and created significant controversy over flood insurance in general. Many changes resulted, and insurance underwriters felt compelled to boost rates for many types of insurance, especially in Gulf Coast markets. Despite predictions of damaging hurricane seasons for 2006 and 2007, large losses did not occur, and underwriters earned fat profits. During 2008, hurricanes caused significant and costly damage in Louisiana and Texas. Recently, much of each hurricane season's risk was sold by primary underwriters to hedge funds and reinsurers who buy portions of large, high-risk insurance policies. This enables property & casualty underwriters to continue to earn reasonable profits while laying-off a significant part of potential losses if there is a devastating hurricane.

insurance industry includes a wide variety of sectors and services. The most obvious are insurance underwriters that cover the risks and issue the policies, along with the agencies that sell insurance. However, there are also large numbers of consulting firms, claims processing firms, data collection firms and myriad other specialized fields serving the industry.

In addition, there are insurance brokers, which have traditionally posted enviable profits. Normally, insurance brokers-companies that are supposed to represent the interests of major corporate clients while finding these customers the best coverage at the best rates-would be little known to the general public. However, scandal rocked the brokerage sector during 2004, and regulators' efforts to control this sector created significant changes. Meanwhile, some members of the brokerage industry promoted the idea of important changes from within, including the abolition of "incentive payments" from underwriters to brokers, and a focus on acting as advocates for clients.

Recent regulatory changes have heightened competition within the insurance industry-an area in which competition has always been fierce. Massive mergers and acquisitions have resulted, creating financial services mega-firms, many of which offer a complete range of financial services and products to their customers, from checking accounts to investment products to life insurance. For example, banks are slowly gaining market share in the sale of insurance products, particularly annuities and life insurance. Investment companies like Merrill Lynch (now part of Bank of America) have been eager to sell insurance to their customers as well. Bank holding companies have been aggressively acquiring insurance agencies. Competition will only become more intense. While there are tens of thousands of small insurance industry companies in the U.S. alone, the industry tends to be concentrated in a few hundred major companies, many of which enjoy brands that are household names. A handful of these leading firms operate on a truly global scale.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

The Financial and Capital Markets




Expectations for economic and market conditions to slowly improve through the year (to the point where both turn positive heading into 2010) has fueled the aggressive rebound in capital markets. However, at some point, traders will have to ask themselves how long speculation can drive the market higher before a lack of earnings and investment starts to cloud the future once again. Such a realization may have been grown more opaque this past week with the release of so many major economic events. Acting as a barometer for the health of the world’s largest economy, the US non-farm payrolls report reminded traders that they are taking on risk when the recession is still in full swing. Perhaps the more critical weight for sentiment though was the Fed’s Stress Test results. Meeting expectations that 10 of the 19 would fall short of a reasonable cushion to an extended recession, the $74.6 billion in capital needed seemed tolerable. However, the belief that these figures were contrived is growing. Did the government lowball risk and what about the threat of ongoing defaults

The Economy and The Credit Market



Optimism surrounding an eventual economic recovery is growing; but all those making positive forecasts do so with a disclaimer for timing and barring any unforeseen events. These stipulations are perhaps as important as the general concept of a recovery itself; and therein lays the source of the market’s next dominant fundamental theme. Will the US economy recovery before its G10 counterparts? Is there a next shoe to drop? And, if that is the case, will the dollar take the role of safe haven or growth candidate? These are the questions that all fundamental market participants will be asking themselves; but that the greenback traders in particular will be attempting to discount. Over the past week, the outlook for the US (compared to the rest of the globe) improved modestly on a smaller than expected drop in May payrolls and the in ‘tolerable’ shortfalls of those 10 American banks that failed the federa reserv's stress test.However, it is important to realize that the recovery in risk appetite is fully derived from speculation of future growth, earnings and returns. Things could fall apart quickly…

Are the early signs of recovery strong with us dollar?


Optimism surrounding an eventual economic recovery is growing; but all those making positive forecasts do so with a disclaimer for timing and barring any unforeseen events. These stipulations are perhaps as important as the general concept of a recovery itself; and therein lays the source of the market’s next dominant fundamental theme. Will the US economy recovery before its G10 counterparts?

Thursday, May 7, 2009

There are basically two ways to valuate Stocks:

The first type of valuation is done through an analysis of the company’s financial position, earnings, and the Market Price to Earnings ratio.. This type of valuation usually determines the long-term prices.
The second type of valuation is dictated by how much a buyer is willing to pay and how much a seller is willing to sell the stock of shares for. Here the demand and supply mechanism rules primarily. The more the people want to buy a particular stock, the higher its price will be and alternately, the more people that want to sell the stock, the lower the price will be. This type of valuation determines the short-term stock market prices.
This type of valuation does not reflect the actual book price of the shares of a company. It is the market that decides this price. The market price is determined by many influencing factors such as the economy, the politics, and the general mood of the country and buyers/sellers. This makes the stock market like a living thing with its own traits, personality, and behaviour.
So basically in the long term, the stock market is driven by economic and financial growth whereas in the short term, the market is driven by the rumours, mood and emotions of the investors.
During economic prosperity or high consumer confidence, the stock market prices go up in bullish trend inflating the share prices to a lot more than the actual prices; and during difficult economic times, political uncertainty, and low consumer confidence, the stock market prices go down into bearish trends.

There are basically two ways to valuate Stocks:

The first type of valuation is done through an analysis of the company’s financial position, earnings, and the Market Price to Earnings ratio.. This type of valuation usually determines the long-term prices.
The second type of valuation is dictated by how much a buyer is willing to pay and how much a seller is willing to sell the stock of shares for. Here the demand and supply mechanism rules primarily. The more the people want to buy a particular stock, the higher its price will be and alternately, the more people that want to sell the stock, the lower the price will be. This type of valuation determines the short-term stock market prices.
This type of valuation does not reflect the actual book price of the shares of a company. It is the market that decides this price. The market price is determined by many influencing factors such as the economy, the politics, and the general mood of the country and buyers/sellers. This makes the stock market like a living thing with its own traits, personality, and behaviour.
So basically in the long term, the stock market is driven by economic and financial growth whereas in the short term, the market is driven by the rumours, mood and emotions of the investors.
During economic prosperity or high consumer confidence, the stock market prices go up in bullish trend inflating the share prices to a lot more than the actual prices; and during difficult economic times, political uncertainty, and low consumer confidence, the stock market prices go down into bearish trends.

The Stock Exchange

Stock Exchange is an organized open market for buying and selling financial commodities, known as securities, such as shares or stocks, debentures, bonds, options, and futures. It is also known as the stock market. We can in Nepali call the Stock Exchange, a Haat Bazaar, where Brokers, who are the representatives of the shareholders come together for buying and selling their ownership or debts of companies. The stock exchange is also an authority to supervise and regulate the trading.
Stock exchange plays an important role in the economy by providing a place for buyers and sellers to trade securities, stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments.
It is also called the secondary market, the primary market being the first issue of the shares and bonds. In the secondary market investors, who buy and sell stocks and not the companies, earn the profits or bear the losses resulting from their trades. The investors also earn from the companies whose shares they hold, in the form of dividends paid out by the company from their earnings. Stock exchanges encourage investment by providing this secondary market and increase the safety of investing.
In the Stock Exchange, the buyers and sellers do not participate directly in the transactions but place their buying or selling order to a Stock Broker who carries out the transaction in the Stock Exchange for nominal fees of approximately 1.5% on each transaction.
Companies issue new shares or securities in the primary market usually with the help of investment agencies, investment bankers. In the primary market, companies receive the proceeds of stock sales. Thereafter, they are not involved in the trading of stocks. Owners of stocks trade them in the Stock Exchange in the secondary market.