The Euro Paradox

The deepening of the credit crisis in the EU has triggered a wave of self-reflection, prompting those on the inside to ponder life without the Euro and those on the outside pondering life with the Euro. Their opinions couldn't be any more divergent. Countries like Italy, Spain, and Ireland, for example, have blamed the Euro for their economic woes, arguing that easy monetary policy and cheap credit were responsible for their real estate bubbles. Some commentators, accordingly, have argued that structural differences between these countries and the economic powerhouses of Germany and France are so large that it doesn't make sense for them to share a common currency. Meanwhile, Eastern European countries, most of which are still outside the Euro, are clamoring to join as sudden depreciations in their respective currencies have exposed them to massive economic instability. Business Week reports:

What happened, in effect, was rapid economic isolation. This began as investors moved money from more risky regional stock and currency markets into safer, often euro-denominated, assets, in what economists call a "flight to quality."

Ruble to Continue Falling

The Russian Ruble is sliding faster and faster, having most recently reached a pace and level not seen since 1998, when Russia famously defaulted on its debt, and the currency lost more than half of its value in under a week. The Central Bank is keen to avoid a similar catastrophe this time around which is why it has diligently controlled the Ruble's descent, rather than allow the currency to reach an equilibrium in the spot market; such would likely result in a precipitous drop and perhaps a loss of confidence in the nation's banking system. Unfortunately, given the current m.o. of consistent but gradual devaluation, foreign investors are hesitant to own the Ruble, conscious of its inevitable decline. In fact, futures prices indicate that it is due to fall another 11%, with experts suggesting that this could be implemented over a time period as brief as one month, in order to return the economy to "normal" functioning as quickly as possible. Bloomberg News reports:

The falling ruble is causing banks, companies and individuals to hoard foreign currency. "All the attention of the people is focused on the forex market. Companies aren’t buying supplies, they’re investing their rubles in dollars instead because the play is too attractive."

stock view

MARKET INDICES

NASDAQ Volume: 1,976,052,762 Today's Market Stats

NASDAQ1507.84-50.5 3.24%

NASDAQ 1001203.85-32.06 2.59%

NASDAQ 100 PMI1219.13-16.78 1.36%

NASDAQ 100 AHI1206.792.94 0.24%

DJIA8149.01-226.44 2.70%

S&P 500845.14-28.95 3.31%

Russell 2000453.24-19.78 4.18%

More Indices...Market|Sector|Global

Making Money Trading Penny Stocks - Is it Possible?

If you hear the term "Penny stocks" this is referring to stocks of organizations that are priced at very low prices. Many people are drawn to these stocks as they can use a minor initial investment, but keep in mind that you encounter the risk of the share value falling to zilch. Yes, there are definitely risks involved in these kinds of shares, there is also a significant prospective for tremendous profits.

Obviously, when you are attempting to pick out a penny stock to put money in in you are going to want to inquire about a few details about the business. Just like when selecting shares of any other sort of publicly traded company, it's a good idea to investigate everything about the organization. This relates to knowing what the organization do, the product they make, what products or services are offered, how their business plan functions and who else is involved in their industry.

One of the things that makes penny shares so likable is the fact that most of the companies offering them are rather uncomplicated. There's a lot of of these types of stocks that are companies involved with resources - their value will rise and fall based on the price of the resource.

Penny stocks are seen as a high risk purchase, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unfortunately there's also the risk that the organization won't stick around even with proper research.

One thing to keep in mind is that the financial reporting guidelines for penny stocks aren't typically as tight as shares on bigger stock exchanges. One type of penny stock is known as the Pink Sheets, there's almost no regulatory requirements on penny shares, no standard accounting guidelines or reporting guidelines.

Since there's low or even no regulation or standards, this renders this sort of share open to fraud and dishonest reporting. A well known common schemes is know as a "pump and dump" - investors manipulating the price of shares to rise drastically and then sell all of their shares in one chunk leaving other people with big losses.

However, even with that said it doesn't mean you should be scared off of these shares entirely. You can find scores of real, honest small organizations, and they have tons of potential. Tons of businesses that are looked to as penny stocks are headed to be a success in the future. If you are able to choose one of these businesses, your return on your purchase of stocks will be massive.

Obama Could Step up Pressure on Yuan

While much has been written about the forex implications of the Barack Obama Presidency, most of the commentary has focused on the Dollar, at the expense of reporting on other currencies. The Chinese Yuan, to name one such currency, could soon find its fate tied closely to Obama; it has been widely speculated that he will compensate for the reticence of his predecessor by formally labeling China a currency manipulator and pressuring its to allow the RMB to appreciate at a faster pace.

Timothy Geithner, who is set to be confirmed as the next Treasury Secretary, has echoed similar sentiments. It is unclear whether such a sentiment would achieve the necessary legislative support required to levy punitive sanctions against China in order to force it into submission. Given the current global economic climate, however, it seems unlikely that China would comply. Marketwatch reports:

In fact, China itself has every reason to avoid both depreciation and appreciation of its currency. The latter could further weigh on already drooping exports, and the former could lead to capital outflows from the country, at a time it can least afford this.

Japan Moves Closer to Intervention

Despite backed by negative real interest rates, the Japanese Yen continues to grind upwards, threatening to break through significant psychological and technical barriers. From a monetary standpoint, the Bank of Japan is basically out of options with regard to limiting the currency's upward momentum. Its sole remaining tool is its $1 Trillion in foreign exchange reserves, which it could release directly into currency markets to depress the Yen. It has been four years since Japan last employed such a strategy, and it appears reluctant to dip into the reserves again for fear of offending the G8, which has discouraged such action. The BOJ is also reluctant to build its holdings of US Treasuries (which would be a collateral requirement of holding down the Yen), because bond prices have become inflated. However, loss of face may soon become the least of its concerns, as the economy slides deeper into recession. Unless the notoriously thrifty Japanese consumers can be impelled to action, the Bank may find it has no other choice but to spur the export sector via a cheaper Yen. The Guardian UK reports:

The economic malaise in the United States and Europe is affecting Japan and Tokyo must act to keep the economy afloat, Nakagawa said, a day after the country's central bank forecast that Japan would plunge into its deepest contraction in modern times.

US Treasury Spurns China

During his confirmation hearings, Treasury Secretary Geithner indicated that the Obama administration consensus is that China is manipulating the Yuan. China predictably refuted the charges, and indicated that it will not be bullied into submission by the US when managing its currency. Thus began a heated back-and-forth between US and Chinese economic officials, with the forex markets caught awkwardly in the middle. Geithner apparently doesn't realize that his position also carries important diplomatic responsibilities, namely helping the US government to pay its bills by ensuring a steady demand for US Treasury securities abroad. Offending the most reliable foreign lender, accordingly, is probably not the best strategy to fulfilling this role. Moreover, Geithner's testimony couldn't have occurred at a worse time, given the planned expansion of US debt and the simultaneous leveling off of China's forex reserves. The implications for the Dollar couldn't be clearer. Forbes reports:

China has been a major purchaser of America's official debt in recent years. If it were to stop...Geithner would likely find his Treasury paper having to offer higher yields to draw investors, putting new pressure on the American budget.

Swiss Franc in Spotlight

The Swiss Franc is in the same boat as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, benefiting from an increase in risk aversion and an unwinding of carry trade positions. In other words, the currency rising on the back of the sound monetary policy of the National Bank of Switzerland, with its low rate of inflation and proportionately low interest rate.Despite the fact that the Swiss economy is poised to contract in 2009, its economy is in better shape than its rivals, and its current account balance is still in surplus. As a result, the consensus among analysts is that investors will continue to flock to the Franc, as Switzerland is sill perceived as a relatively low-risk place to invest. Especially compared to the Euro, which has risen against the Dollar of late, the Swiss Franc remains undervalued. Bloomberg News reports:

Investors are drawn to the franc in times of international tension and economic upheaval because of the country’s history of neutrality and political stability.