Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Using Indicators to Identify Trends
ADX (average directional movement index). If the ADX reading is above 20, that indicates a "real" or sustainable trend. The ADX also measures the trend's strength: the >higher the ADX, the stronger the trend. The ADX also provides an early indicator of a trend's end. When it drops from its highest level, it may be time to exit the position and wait for a fresh signal from the the DI+/DI-.
DI+ and DI- lines. When DI+ crosses up through DI-, that's considered a buy sign. When the opposite happens, that's usually a sell sign. Wilder recommends following the "extreme point rule" to confirm the signals. Note the extreme point for that period in the direction of the crossover (the high if DI+ crosses up over DI-; the low if DI- crosses up over DI+). Only if that extreme point is breached in the subsequent period is a trade signal confirmed. Many traders use the parabolic indicator along with the ADX to identify a trend's end. The parabolic indicator follows the price action but accelerates its own rate of increase over time and in response to the trend. The parabolic continually closes in on the price, and only a steadily accelerating price rise (the essence of a trend) will prevent the price from falling below the parabolic, signaling an end to the trend.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
How Do I Read the Stochastic Indicator?
Stochastic Indicator is another type of overbought/oversold indicator that is very popular among stock traders and futures traders. This indicator was developed by George Lane in 1960s. George Lane assumed that as the price of an instrument increases, the daily closes tend to be closer to the upper end of the recent price range. On the other hand, as the price decreases, the daily closes tend to be closer to the lower end of the recent price range.
The STOCH is plotted as two lines called %K, a fast line and %D, a slow line. These two lines have the following characteristics: %K line is more sensitive than %D; %D line is a moving average of %K.; and %D line triggers the trading signals. Confused? Deal %K as a fast moving average and %D as a slow moving average. At the 80% and 20% levels, "trigger" lines are normally drawn on stochastic charts. When these lines are crossed, a signal is generated. Stochastic bands are what we call the zones above and below these two lines.
Apply the following formula in order to calculate the stochastic indicator. A scale from 1 to 100 is used to plot the results from the calculations of the formulas below:
%K = [(CCP - LOWn) / (HIGHn - LOWn)]*100
where:
CCP - current closing price
LOWn - the lowest low for the previous n trade periods
HIGHn - the highest high for the previous n trade periods
n- typically it is 14, may also vary. The %K value is 0 when the CCP is the lowest for the last n trade periods. Likewise, the %K value is 100 when the CCP is a highest for the last n trade periods.
%D = SMAn %K
where:
SMAn - simple moving average across n periods; typically n=3
When using Stochastic Indicator, you should be able to determine on how and when to trade.
Overbought / Oversold: The market is in an overbought or oversold mood when one of the stochastic lines crosses the 20% and 80% levels. It means that when the stochastic falls below 20% level then rises above it, then we should buy. And we should sell when the stochastic rises above 80% level then falls below it.
Crossover: The STOCH is plotted as two lines, the %K line and the %D line. They are like two moving averages indicators, one of them is fast and the other is slow. When %K crosses down up the %D, we should buy. But when the %K crossed above down the %D, we sell.
Divergences: There is a good signal for buying or selling the security when there is a divergence between the stochastic lines. The market is weak if prices are making a series of new highs and the stochastic is trending lower.
Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Technical Analysis
One of the easiest methods in Technical Analysis is the Simple Moving Average or SMA. It is the simplest type of all the moving average. The SMA shows the average price of a given time period. And each period carries the same weight for the average. SMA helps to smooth the price curve for better trend identification. In fact, the longer the SMA period selected, the smoother the curve.
Since it is the simplest of all the moving average, the math behind SMA is also simple. The average price of a certain period is represented by SMA and it is calculated by summing up the prices of instrument closure over a certain number of single periods divided by the number of time periods. Take note that short-term averages respond quickly to changes in the price of the underlying, while long-term averages are slow to react.
SMA = SUM (CLOSE (i), N) / N
Where:SUM - sum; CLOSE (i) - current period closing price; N = number of periods in calculation.
For example you want to plot a 5 period simple moving average on a 1-hour chart, you should add up the closing prices for the last 5 hours and then divide it by 5. If you want to plot 5 period simple moving an average on a 30 minute chart, then you should add up the closing prices of the last 150 minutes and divide it by 5. So if you want to develop an SMA chart for USD/JPY closing price in a 5-day time frame, how would you do it?
For example the first 5 days USD/JPY closing prices are 125.0, 124.0, 126.0, 123.0, and 127.0. The average of the first 5 days USD/JPY closing price that will be the first dots of the SMA graph is 125.0. The second SMA point will be (124.0 + 126.0 + 123.0 + 127.0 + 126.0)/5= 125.2 if we assume the USD/JPY closing price for the day six is 126.0. So the calculation goes on for the following dots. And joining these SMA dots defines the SMA chart. In other words, SMA is the average stock price over a certain period of time.
Formula for the 5 period SMA 5 period SMA = (Price1 + Price2 + Price3 + Price4 + Price5) / 5
Simple Moving Average operates with a delay just like any indicator. You are forecasting of the future price, not a concrete view of the future, because you are just taking the averages of the price. Although all calculations will be provided by most charting packages, it is important to understand how simple moving averages are calculated. By understanding, you can decide on which type of tool is best for you.
The Value of Trade Balance to Local Economy
The balance of trade also referred as trade balance, which sometimes is symbolized as NX, is the difference of the monetary value of imports and exports in one economy in a given period of time. The balance of trade is considered the biggest part of a country’s balance of payments.
Imports, domestic spending, foreign aid, and investment abroad are called debit items while credit items includes exports, foreign investments in domestic economy and foreign spending in domestic economy.
A trade surplus is a positive balance of trade which is consists of more exporting than importing. A trade deficit is the negative balance of trade or sometimes called a trade gap. The trade balance can sometimes be divided as services balance and goods balance just like in the United Kingdom which they use the terms invisible and visible balance.
The balance of trade is a part of current account which includes transactions that includes income derived from international investment and international aid. Thus, if the current account comes as a surplus then the nation’s international net asset increases also while deficit will decrease the international net asset.
A good trade surplus is achieved when a country exports products more than buying imported goods. A trade deficit is eventually experience as a result of the opposite of a trade surplus. The trade balance is alike to the difference of a country's output and the domestic demand. These factors may affect the trade balance: prices of goods manufactured, taxes and tariffs, trade agreements, business cycle (home or abroad), and exchange rates.
The trade balance is different in many business cycles. For instance, export growth like oil and industrial goods which improves when there is economic expansion.
In developed countries like; Japan, China and Germany usually run at trade surpluses in which they experience a higher savings rate. Around the world there are different natural resources which a country may have for instance, countries from the coastal regions are major producers of fish, Canada can be a major producer of lumber because of its huge forests while in the Middle East, has the most oil reserves.
International trade is important so in order to sustain the balance of trade. A country should be totally self sufficient without international trade. Through international trades, each country will have the opportunity to produce specialize goods efficiently. In relation, when a nation specializes in producing these goods, the total production increases instead of trying to be self sufficient. Nations will benefit from international trades and also meets their needs. Generally, nations will trade to other nations when they gain from the trade. But the gains are not usually equal in terms of benefits and profit.
What is a Transaction Cost and How to Calculate Them?
In economics, transaction costs are the rate acquired when making an economic exchange. This costs incurred when buying or selling securities or stocks. This is also referred as transaction fees. Transaction costs also comprise of brokers’ commissions ad spreads (difference between the price that the dealer paid for a security and the price it may be sold. This is what the broker or bank produce for being a middleman in a transaction.
For instance, most people when buying or selling a security or stock, pays a commission to their broker and that commission can be considered as the fee or transaction cost for doing that stock deal. When evaluating a potential transaction, it is crucial to think about these costs that might prove significant. Mostly, in financial markets, the initial cost for these transactions is commission which is paid to brokers upon trade execution. This costs becomes increasingly important the shorter the holding time of an investment.
Many market models disregard transactional costs, presumptuous instead those markets are non resistant. While this thought is invalid, for many applications such costs are low enough that they can be disregarded. The lesser the cost for a transaction, the more effective and competent a market is said to be. The Foreign exchange market and stock market have lower costs for such transactions of any major asset class.
It is considered to be much more cost- efficient to trade in Forex in terms of both commissions and transaction fees. An online website for example charges no fees or commissions and at the same time offer traders an access to all relevant market information and trading tools. On the contrary, online stock trade commission ranges from $7.95 - $ 29.95 per trade and up to $100 or more per trade with full service brokers.
Another thing to consider, which is an important point is the width of the bid / ask spread. Regardless of the deal size, foreign exchange dealing spreads are normally or common in 3-4 pips (anyway a pip is .0001 US cents) in the major currencies. Generally, the width of the spread in a foreign exchange market transaction is less than one tenth (1/10) that of a stock transaction, which could contain a .125 or one eight (1/8) wide spread.
Since transaction costs are paid via bid/ask spread, there has to be no charges to trade or hidden fees. There are instances that there would be extra charges asked by good brokers for some non compulsory services or access to particular reports. A smaller spread is visibly better. Since brokers are taking the other side of all the customer trades, brokers gain profit by making the spread between the bid and offer prices. You may find that find spreads vary by broker.
In order to be successful in trading on the foreign exchange market, you have to find a good broker.
Forex Economic Indicators
The execution of in the Forex market is done through the use of economic indicators. These indicators point to the state of some economical factors in the country whose currency you wish to trade with.
Economic indicators are published by various sections of the government and private companies. These statistics are analyzed by market investors to predict the direction of the . Forex economic indicators are published at fixed time intervals, and are followed by any serious online Forex trader.
Since so many people are tuned to use them, Forex economic indicators have a large impact on prices of currencies of the Forex trading market. Most traders do not use fundamental analysis because economic indicators seem difficult. This however is wrong because following simple guides can help you stay updated with the important Forex economic indicators easily.
Starting to use Forex economic indicators
To get started, you should first keep a log of all the important Forex economic indicators' release dates. Keep a log or make a subscription to one of the economic journals, so you'll know the most important factors of that time. If you are trading in JPY, the Forex economic indicators need to be relevant to the currency type, of course.
Each economic indicator tells you about a different aspect of the economy, and this should be translated in turn into the predicted movement of the currency price. Make sure you understand which aspect the indicator is about. For example, know that the GDP measures the growth of the economy while the PPI Don't worry, with some experience this will come naturally.
Different indicators have changing importance, according to the country's currency. Some currencies might have inflation indicators as key economic indicators while others will have employment rates as key indicators. This is also something you should find out and read about at various books and online guides.
There are leading economic indicators, which change before a particular Forex trend is set, and lagging indicators, that change after the economy had begun to follow a certain pattern. Both indicators should be used, depending on the currency's situation.
Major Forex Economic Indicators
- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - The sum of goods and services produced by domestic or foreign companies.
- Industrial Production - A measure of the production change, industrial capacity and resources of a country's factories, mines and utilities.
- Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - A monthly index of a country's manufacturing conditions, including new orders, supplier delivery times, inventories, prices, employment, export orders, and import orders.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) - A measure of price changes in the manufacturing sector.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) - A measure of the average price level paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) - A measure of the number of jobs in more than 500 industries in all states and 255 metropolitan areas.
TRENDS REPORTS
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Descending trend

Trend line is drawn by joining of the top points of local maxima:
Example of a descending trend
The more points of Forex rate values get on a straight line, the more trend is especially confirmed. One of the trend force criteria is its reaction to support and resistance levels. Break of support/resistance level means, that the dominating trend keeps the force. The more trend encounters the resistance or support, being unable to overcomes them, the more strong signal about weakness of a trend we receive, and the more probability of a turn in the future.
There is a number of the general rules of trend force definition:- The longer the trend is kept, the stronger it is, however it has a limit;- The more abruptly and more quickly trend, the stronger it is;- The long flat trend has an every prospect of the continuation;- Very abrupt trend can abruptly turn over also;- Any trend slackens, however probability of continuation of a trend in its any point above probability of its turn
Ascending trend-forex

If demand exceeds the offer long time and causes growth of a rate sooner or later it is saturated. Since some moment the offer starts to exceed demand. It leads to sale of currency that is expressed in some decrease of its rate - trend correction.
Trend correction: the movement directed against a direction of the previous trend. The given movement does not surpass the previous trend. If to consider a trend is the phenomenon which returns the prices in "a correct channel" and does not allow market movement to deviate fundamental factors.
On an ascending trend a part of participants open long positions, satisfied by growth of an exchange rate and start to close positions - to sell currency with the purpose to fix the profit quickly. However if the principal causes causing increased currency demand, have not changed, currency buying renews, and the rate increases. Then movement of a rate gets a direction, or a trend.
There are two kinds of trend: ascending and descending trend
Ascending trend - each time in exchange rate achieves higher value in comparison with previous rate - price movement at which each subsequent local maximum and local minimum above previous.
The bottom points of waves (local minima) join a direct line - trend line:
Example of an ascending trend
Trend lines - forex trends
As is easy to see, markets tend to trend higher or lower following quite geometrical patterns. In an entire uptrend, it is easy to see a series of higher highs and higher lows. If a joining line is drawn between the rising lows, this is called a trend line and it will often be accurate in projecting where the market will find support on the next hollows, thereby indicating good buying levels. When the price breaks lower through such a trendline, a sharp sell-off will often follow as many Forex market traders will have placed sell stop-orders just below the line for their long positions.The break below an uptrend line is in itself a sell signal, attracting new sellers to the market. It is normally to see the series of lower highs and lower lows in a downwards trending market. The trend line can here be drawn along the descending highs and mirrors the analysis described above.
Technical analysis holds that because every possible bit of information is included in the price of a security, it is not necessary to explicitly analyze the fundamental, economic, political, etc. factors that might influence that price. Because all available information is already included in the current price, only a study of the price movement is required. While it is not explicitly proven that prices must trend, technical analysis relies on empirical evidence and simple common sense to assert that prices do trend. Dow Theory provides much of the empirical time-tested support that prices trend to a technician.
For example, if homeowners believed that interest Forex rate increases will erode the value of their homes, they will be inclined to sell. If there were three similar homes in a neighborhood up for sale, the first house could be sold for $100,000, the second could be sold for $97,500 and perhaps the third could sell for $95,000. Rather than immediately drop down to some formulaic price based on interest rates and other inputs, prices will move consistently over time in one direction. (In a large market like global equities with many participants, prices will move in a zig-zag fashion in one direction.) Prices will continue to decline until there is a balance between buyers and sellers. This gradual (but sometimes quick) directional movement in prices (the trend) is what technical analysis attempts to identify and exploit. If a technical analyst could enter this market, he or she would likely sell short a house because the price trend is downward. A person who does not believe that prices move in trends will find little use of technical analysis. The idea that prices trend is probably the most important concept in technical analysis. Moreover, a person who disagrees with Dow Theory will also likely find fault with technical analysis.
Technical analysis believes that investors en masse display much of the same behavior as the investors that preceded them. "Everyone wants in on the next Microsoft," "If this stock ever gets to $50 again, I will buy it," "This company's technology will revolutionize its industry, therefore this stock will skyrocket,"--these are all examples of investors' attitudes repeating. To a technical analyst, the human characteristics of the market might be irrational but nonetheless they exist. Because investors' attitudes often repeat, investors' actions in the marketplace often repeat as well. I.e., patterns of price movement will develop on a chart that a technical analyst believes have predictive qualities. It is important to understand that the realm of technical analysis is not limited to charting.
forex trade-success story
I created this page to share my story of how I lost my house, had to file for bankruptcy, and almost lost my entire life savings before I was able to turn it all around. I had so many of my friends and friends of friends asking me how on earth I was able to pull out of such a horrible situation, and then end up retired only 6 months later.
I Made 6k On My FIRST Try...
It all started back when I was a trader in the days when the market was at its best. (Up to Sept 11th.) I had sold my business and every one I knew was making a ton of money in the stock market. So I put my life savings into the market and turned 200k into about 10k in 6 short months. I lost my house and had to declare bankruptcy. I had always worked for myself before this, but now I had to get a job just to pay the bills. Luckily my wife stuck with me through all of this.
After that I had found a decent job in the Denver area, and lived in a fairly nice part of town. I never really got used to having to work for someone else, but in the position I was in I felt like I had no option. I had virtually no money left for my retirement, and it was beginning to dawn on me that I very well might end up working for the rest of my life.
Thats when I stumbled across an ad online for a program called forex secrets. The program seemed like everything I wish I had years ago, but I was still very skeptical of course. I have paid over 5k for a weekend course before that I took while I was going broke. But I ordered it anyway just to take a look, although I honestly expected to be shipping it back in a week or two.
Right off the bat I loved how the system was not just trying to tell me what to trade and when to get in and get out. No, instead it taught me how to actually read the markets, and what to do in various demanding situations. It reminds me of a saying by Tony Robbins, ”John the baker took 20 years to perfect his chocolate cake recipe. But how long will it take you to learn to make the cake if John is willing to teach you?” This system has turned out to be my “John the baker”.
I am happy to say that 6 months after beginning Forex Secrets, I left my job and am devoting myself to trading in the Forex as my “full-time” job. Since leaving work in January, I have consistently made more money trading than I would have made working for someone else.
I’m excited to report that I am having a very good week this week. Currently I am monitoring and managing some trades that I have had on for 9 days now, and will make a profit of $702,102.00 from these trades alone.